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It is easy to envisage spectacular and rapid historical reversals. Ousemos liquidar os Evolianos e Heideggerianos. In addition to these problems, the economy will increasingly resemble the Third World because of the uncontrolled immigration of unskilled populations. Clique na guia Export mostrada na Figura no menu superior. History offers us examples of sudden and unforeseen collapses: But sometimes the collapse is violent and sudden. The dream will shatter into pieces.

People believe they can have their cake and eat it too.

I shall mention a few examples of believing in miracles:. This is the illusion of indefinite development. We see this drama being acted out in the shipwreck of our schools, where violence, insecurity, ignorance, and illiteracy are arising out of the illusion of progressive education, an educational method which rejects any form of discipline for its students. This is the illusion of the Communist conception of solidarity.

Believing also that we can renew the working population by importing immigrants, when these immigrants are unskilled welfare recipients and our responsibility. Imagining also that by regularising the status of masses of illegal immigrants, it will be possible to assimilate them and avoid the arrival of new masses, although we observe exactly the opposite. This is the illusion of the benefits of immigration. This is the Third Worldist illusion.

This is the illusion of the new economy. I could make the list longer. The whole thing is explained by the sophisms of bogus experts, whose conclusions are always that everything is going well and getting better and that we have the situation under control. They are like a driver who speeds through a red light and justifies it by explaining that the faster he drives, the less time he spends in the intersection and therefore reduces the risk of a collision.

Paul MacLean, [5] Konrad Lorenz, [6] Arthur Koestler, [7] and Jean Rostand [8] have sensed that man is a sick animal, endowed with a brain that is too large.

Conscience is perhaps, on the evolutionary scale, an illness and intelligence a burden. Man has lost touch with his natural survival instincts. Our neocortex, which some biologists compare to a tumour, does not function sufficiently in symbiosis with our reptilian brain.

Homo sapiens sapiens does not deserve the name he has given himself. Humanity has lost control of the forward rush of the technological and globalised civilisation born in the Nineteenth century. We should remember the parable of the Golem, the Jewish allegory from Prague, in which a mud figure brought to life by magic escapes its maker, becomes an autonomous and out of control entity, and then starts spreading terror.

Optimistic and short-sighted mechanics, they are only making the situation worse. More than that, they are not in control of the machine and have no idea where it is heading. There really is a pilot in the airplane, but he is convinced that he is driving a locomotive. Among the inescapable trends at work today, there are other risks that are unforeseeable today but which will make things worse or perhaps better, but this is less likely , or else create new tendencies or new earth-shattering phenomena.

At any rate, it is hard to see any positive signs. All the indictors are flashing red. In futurology, there are only two types of extrapolation from current trends that one can make with a high degree of probability: Today predictions are typically based on weak extrapolations. We are less concerned with strong extrapolations , which have a good chance of being realised in the next twenty years: The current implicit ideology that dominates the world, especially in the West, still continues to profess, officially, the utopia inherited from the egalitarian philosophy of the Enlightenment Eighteenth century , positivism [12] and scientism Nineteenth century: All this resembles the billiard player who imagines that after four or five rebounds his ball will automatically fall into the hole.

These professors of ballistics are playing golf, but they do not know it. It is a quasi-certainty that this persistent belief in progress and modernity , concepts which the political classes of the West are always jabbering about and which are totally obsolete, will never see its objectives occur.

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The dream will shatter into pieces. Constraining forces , a physical wall, makes this ideology resemble a mass of intellectual stupefaction and belief in miracles. The demanding parameters, mentioned above, based upon the assumption that current realities will persist and that current projections for the future will be realised, are not taken into account. No one is looking at the dashboard or the fuel gauge.

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Only the short-term counts, but for how much more time? The majority of the elites do not concern themselves with the long term, or even the middle term, in this civilisation of the here and now. The fate of future generations does not interest the decision-makers at all. They care only about their own careers.

Alas, I think that is already too late. We have passed the point of no return.

The majority of intellectuals, media people, politicians and businessmen maintain a language of utopian optimism , clinging to their dogmas and making a gross travesty of reality: We go forward each time either by lying and misrepresenting the objective situation, or by deliberately ignoring the parameters and changes that are taking place. Pessimism is present everywhere, like a sort of presentiment of a coming apocalypse.

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They were not mistaken. Every system is unstable and every civilisation is mortal, like everything in the universe. But sometimes the collapse is violent and sudden. For a long time a system can be worn away from inside by an endemic crisis; it holds out for a long time and then, suddenly, everything tips over.

We find here the law of viral and bacterial biology: A tree, apparently in good health, falls down during the first storm, although no one suspected that its insides were eaten away.

History offers us examples of sudden and unforeseen collapses: We are going to hit a very sudden breaking point arising from the simultaneous convergences of great crises.

It is easy to envisage spectacular and rapid historical reversals. It is always necessary to beware of surprises , these unforeseen and sometimes discrete transformations, which turn everything upside down.

Smashing Wordpress - Além Do Blog

That is what is heading for us today. We believe that we are still living in world X, when we are already in world Y, and the house of cards of the old world collapses without warning.

These metamorphoses do not always make the front pages of newspapers; they take place without making a fuss. The founding of the Fifth Republic, [16] the fall of Communism, the results of American elections, etc. For a generation they have been increasingly frequent and rapid. They are transforming the face of our civilisation. Let us mention some cases.

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We are in control of none of these structural metamorphoses. And very few people are aware of the power of their interaction. They possess neither strategy nor mastery of analysis and are satisfied with tactics.

The real problems are never investigated. The solutions are rhetorical or electoral. The good apostles, bureaucrats with MBAs from prestigious schools, are only masters of words.

No improvement is in sight. They play the role sorcerers played in ancient societies. No one is directing science and technology any longer and, far from improving the human condition as they used to, they are making it worse, notably by exhausting resources and destroying the environment. No authority, no international planning has emerged. Globalisation is anarchy. Similarly, democracy has to be seen as an aggravating factor, for this type of regime removes any central authority that can, when it sees the storm appearing, react in an emergency.

Liberal democracy favours improvidence, the law of the market, and short-term calculation by individuals or corporations.

If once upon a time this type of regime was efficient, today it seems incompetent, as it shows every day, to stem the rise of dangers. International conferences on the environment are a futile waste of time. Just as there is no control over mass immigration, so the destruction of fish reserves and our forest heritage, the increased emission of greenhouse gases, the demographic gap between North and South, etc.

Even the authorities who arise to reverse the catastrophic course of events, whether they represent countries or the United Nations, do not succeed in correcting the direction of the cargo ship that is going full sail, faster and faster, towards the reefs. Computers, the electric or low-polluting engines, organic agriculture, and pharmaceutical research will not prevent the return of famines and epidemics or the exponential growth of pollution.

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